For the fifth year in a row, auto enthusiast brand and classic vehicle insurance provider Hagerty donned its prognosis hat and compiled what it calls the bull market list. Using its own extensive database of market information, the company’s analysts are trying to predict which sellers will be the most popular before values actually rise. On the surface, it’s a bit like watching stock market trends.
By the way, Hagerty himself is a freshly formed member of the New York Stock Exchange, having launched its initial public offering on Wall Street last week under the ticker symbol HGTY. A shriveled turtle in a sea of fast-swimming EV tech start-ups and foreign-owned inventory, Hagerty places her bets on herself as well as the classic car market.
To remind Wall Street traders and jaded New Yorkers who they are, Traverse City, Michigan-based Hagerty brought a Duesenberg Model A, a 1966 Ford GT40 and a 1967 Porsche 911S to the Broad gate on Monday. NYSE Street. After a brief “Cars & Caffeine” prelude to the festivities, CEO McKeel Hagerty rang the opening bell.
Although steeped in the automotive culture of decades past, as symbolized by these premier cars, the company has carefully observed generational changes in the car collection. Millennials have reached the age where they can afford vintage vehicles and, like previous generations, they are interested in vehicles from their youth from the ’80s and’ 90s.
Well beyond their depreciation curves, interest in these models is increasing today among millennials and Gen-Xers. The cycle reflects the interest in the fabulous fins of the fifties, which peaked when baby boomers hit middle age in the eighties. However, there are more niches now. Interest in vintage off-road vehicles is booming alongside the popularity of modern SUVs, while more attention than ever has been paid to vintage cars for sale online as younger Zoomers play a role. oversized on the vintage car social media scene.
Hagerty’s bull market list represents a glimpse into this changing market, which now includes vehicles that surely would have gone unnoticed in the back of the used car fleet in the past.
The bull market list
Hagerty’s predictions are not an estimate of the current temperature. As an insurance provider with a large team of bean counters and actuarial scientists, the business is uniquely tied to the used car and collector market. As the company has 10 years of valuation information on more than 40,000 cars, trucks, vans and motorcycles from the early 20th century to the present day, it would be difficult to identify another company with depth and breadth. similar historical knowledge and connection to automotive culture.
For the 2020 list, Hagerty highlighted the emphasis on ‘drive what you love’ and the emphasis on highlighting fun cars in a variety of budgets and tastes. The company is quick to point out that its annual list “is not a get-rich-quick list for fins; it’s a tip sheet to help enthusiasts get their cake and maybe eat it too.
Last year’s all-star roster included the Jaguar XK120, the 1960s Honda S-series sports cars and the 1969 CB750 motorcycle, the 1980s Ferrari Testarossa and Volkswagen Vanagon, the mid-1980s Toyota Land Cruiser. 1990s and a host of popular cars of this century. , including the Audi TT, Ford GT, Jeep Grand Cherokee SRT8, Aston-Martin V8 Vantage and the original Lexus LFA.
Thinking of getting a head start on your own collection? Here is the list of Hagerty vehicles for 2022; it’s very different from last year to this year and seems more related to the rise of events that focus on cars of the 1980s and 1990s.
While no bets are guaranteed, especially in this current post / pandemic world, each one seems to be a safe bet for fun with little financial risk:
1. 1965 to 1970 Cadillac DeVille
3. 1983 to 1997 Land Rover Defender
5. 1963 thru 1967 Mercedes-Benz 230SL
7. 1992 to 1995 Porsche 968
9. 2008 to 2012 Tesla Roadster Sport
2. 1969-74 Ferrari 246 Dino
4. 1979 to 1985 Mazda RX-7
6. 1966 to 1967 Pontiac GTO
8. 1985 to 1995 Suzuki Samurai
10. 1975 to 1993 Volvo 245
The company also inspects what it expects. Every year he gives himself a report on his predictions, although the solid wave of uptrend vehicles of all kinds has meant that even some of his least accurate predictions are still relatively safe bets. Looking at the bull market listings from 2018 to 2020, only one car lost value, the Porsche 914, and only 4%.
Looking at which vehicles are emerging from depreciation curves and where the market is heading, for the year ahead, the company expects a whole new line of newcomers, from the sleek 1965 Mercedes 230SL to the revolutionary 2010 Tesla Roadsters.
Inflation, speculation and demand
On the specter of soaring (and possibly over-inflated) auction prices on sites like Bring a Trailer for vehicles like those on its list, a spokesperson for Hagerty warns that the auction market does not represent that about 10% of passionate car sales. This leaves 90 percent of the market represented by private sales, where the opportunity for enthusiasts is more fluid.
“Market expansion is not a new dynamic and the current dynamic is likely fueled somewhat by a delay in the delivery of new performance and passionate cars,” the company said. “However, a more important factor that we are seeing is the increase in demand for pleasure driving brought about by the pandemic. In other words, it looks more like a dynamic driven by demand than a dynamic fueled by a lack of supply. ”
In some corners of the hobbyist industry, soaring prices in the used and classic car market are causing lamentations over inaccessible cars. Is there room for Hagerty to not only impact current owners, but also Millennials and Zoomers who are maturing in the market? CEO McKeel Hagerty says the answer is a definite yes, and Director of Evaluation Analysis for Hagerty John Wiley agrees.
“Zoomers have diverse interests and this has allowed a wider variety of vehicles to be viewed as avid vehicles,” says Wiley. “So while affluent collectors may still have treasured traditional classics, young devotees find fun rides by looking for overlooked (and affordable) cars and trucks. In this sense, a rising ride lifts all ships.
It looks like Hagerty would be the beneficiary of the potential market windfall, leading to higher insurance premiums.
Yes, in part, says the company; however, there is a ratio to consider. The average enthusiast car costs around $ 33,000, Hagerty says. And while higher values result in higher premiums, they also result in larger payouts on claims. When it comes to market values, the business should be agnostic and account for both rising and falling prices.